What is the current probability for "Aligned FDV above $500M one day after launch?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 22¢ (22% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2028. 609 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Aligned FDV above $500M one day after launch?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 225.3% and 15.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Aligned FDV above $500M one day after launch?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Aligned FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Aligned FDV above $500M one day after launch?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2028.

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22¢

Bid/Ask 1/42¢·Spread 41¢·Vol $0·OI $132.373·Closes Jan 1, 2028·609d remaining

0xbc7d5e7ec8150a51d706533126aff94f72b4a601d86c1ea0af0f27440ece91e6

7-day price207 snapshots · 6 regime

50¢22¢ current

Apr 233¢May 1

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Aligned's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Aligned will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Aligned (https://x.com/alignedlayer) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Indicators

IY (Yes) 225.3%

IY (No) 15.9%

Adj IY 113%

CRI 4

Overround 2.5%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	225.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	15.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	113%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	2.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

41¢

Computed

5/1/2026, 2:31:24 PM

Indicators computed 5/1/2026, 2:23:10 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xbc7d5e7ec8150a51d706533126aff94f72b4a601d86c1ea0af0f27440ece91e6 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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