What is the current probability for "Aligned FDV above $800M one day after launch?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 16¢ (16% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2028. 609 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Aligned FDV above $800M one day after launch?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 314.4% and 11.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Aligned FDV above $800M one day after launch?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Aligned FDV above $800M one day after launch?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Aligned FDV above $800M one day after launch?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2028.

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16¢

Bid/Ask 1/31¢·Spread 30¢·Vol $0·OI $697.246·Closes Jan 1, 2028·609d remaining

0xc373f82e9472779046f4aff5c73d4f8b0494673ea02c61c9c96e19d70c1b6e10

7-day price214 snapshots · 6 regime

50¢16¢ current

Apr 244¢May 1

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Aligned's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Aligned will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Aligned (https://x.com/alignedlayer) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Indicators

IY (Yes) 314.4%

IY (No) 11.4%

Adj IY 157%

CRI 5

Overround 2.5%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	314.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	11.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	157%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	2.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

30¢

Computed

5/1/2026, 2:31:40 PM

Indicators computed 5/1/2026, 2:23:10 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xc373f82e9472779046f4aff5c73d4f8b0494673ea02c61c9c96e19d70c1b6e10 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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