What is the current probability for "Australia unemployment rate in Apr 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 96¢ (96% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 21, 2026. 29 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Australia unemployment rate in Apr 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 94.0% and 16590.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Australia unemployment rate in Apr 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Australia unemployment rate in Apr 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 96% probability that Australia unemployment rate in Apr 2026?. This contract trades at 96¢ on Kalshi, closing May 21, 2026. This market shows extreme dysfunction with zero trading activity and a 6¢ spread despite being priced at 0¢, suggesting minimal liquidity and potential stale quotes.

██████████████████████████████████████░░

96¢mid

Bid/Ask 93/99¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes May 21, 2026·29d remaining

KXUE-AUS26APRIL-3.7

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extreme dysfunction with zero trading activity and a 6¢ spread despite being priced at 0¢, suggesting minimal liquidity and potential stale quotes. The astronomical "No" implied yield of 14,132% and cliff risk index of 13 indicate severe mispricing or a broken order book, as these metrics are mathematically inconsistent with a 0¢ price. With only 34 days to expiry and no open interest, this contract appears abandoned and should not be traded without verification of actual counterparty availability.

Resolution rules

If the Australia unemployment rate is above 3.7% for Apr 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 94.0%

IY (No) 16590.1%

Adj IY 7760%

CRI 13

Overround 4.4%

LAS 0.06

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	94.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	16590.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	7760%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	13	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	4.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.06	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:03:48 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 7:53:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXUE-AUS26APRIL-3.7 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →