Australia unemployment rate in Apr 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 65% probability that Australia unemployment rate in Apr 2026?. This contract trades at 65¢ on Kalshi, closing May 21, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 12¢ spread and 739% implied yield on the Yes side unreliable indicators of true market sentiment.

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65¢mid
Bid/Ask 59/71¢·Spread 12¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes May 21, 2026·29d remaining
KXUE-AUS26APRIL-4.2

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest, making the 12¢ spread and 739% implied yield on the Yes side unreliable indicators of true market sentiment. The 0¢ price suggests near-certainty that Australia's unemployment will remain at or below 4.2% in April 2026, but with only 34 days to expiry and no trading activity, this appears to be a dead market rather than a genuine consensus forecast. The 1530.7% implied yield on the No side reflects the mathematical artifact of pricing near zero rather than actionable market intelligence.

Resolution rules

If the Australia unemployment rate is above 4.2% for Apr 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 867.8%
IY (No) 1796.9%
Adj IY 716%
CRI 1
Overround 4.4%
LAS 0.20
▶ Full indicator table (6)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)867.8%
IY (No)1796.9%
Adj IY716%
CRI1
Overround4.4%
LAS0.20

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
12¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:05:22 PM
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 7:53:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXUE-AUS26APRIL-4.2 yes 100

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