May 31 · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by
May 31 is priced at 4¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 3¢ bid, 4¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 3 inside Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?.
Price history
4¢ current
−13¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Outcome
May 31
Rank
#3 of 3
Leader
June 30 13¢
Range
4¢-13¢
Family volume
$1.2M
Identifier
0x9647b0f1...a214
May 23, 2026, 8:30 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
4¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$41K
Family rank
#3 of 3
3 outcomes · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
Closes
Apr 30, 2026
Family volume
$1.2M
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 4¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Apr 30, 2026
Identifier
0x9647b0f1…a214
Event family
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1.2M
Outcomes
3
Highest price
June 30 13¢
Current share
91%
June 30
polymarket · 0xa976dcc2fac50cf13968adbee89ce1de26df0191b8480b89d418280273197f53
September 30
polymarket · 0x95fc6a4ed7f6856d26aa7f21b9f902d05c9cf76b616fd3463de4d147f7a9126b
May 31
polymarket · 0x9647b0f18083245933f2d2ca09acbe7ce89ee60ba83ed01e984df4bc7888a214
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.