September 30 · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by
September 30 is priced at 12¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 8¢ bid, 17¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 3 inside Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?.
Price history
12¢ current
−19¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Outcome
September 30
Rank
#1 of 3
Leader
September 30 12¢
Range
1¢-12¢
Family volume
$1.2M
Identifier
0x95fc6a4e...126b
May 23, 2026, 9:18 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
8¢
Ask
17¢
Spread
9¢
24h volume
$4K
Family rank
#1 of 3
3 outcomes · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
Closes
Apr 30, 2026
Family volume
$1.2M
Orderbook snapshot
8 / 17¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Apr 30, 2026
Identifier
0x95fc6a4e…126b
Event family
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1.2M
Outcomes
3
Highest price
September 30 12¢
Current share
2%
September 30
polymarket · 0x95fc6a4ed7f6856d26aa7f21b9f902d05c9cf76b616fd3463de4d147f7a9126b
June 30
polymarket · 0xa976dcc2fac50cf13968adbee89ce1de26df0191b8480b89d418280273197f53
May 31
polymarket · 0x9647b0f18083245933f2d2ca09acbe7ce89ee60ba83ed01e984df4bc7888a214
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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