Ronaldo Caiado · Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Ronaldo Caiado is priced at 1¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 16 inside Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place.
Price history
1¢ current
−49¢Contract brief
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Outcome
Ronaldo Caiado
Rank
#8 of 16
Leader
Flávio Bolsonaro 61¢
Range
0¢-61¢
Family volume
$3.6M
Identifier
0x1991f63d...a1fb
May 28, 2026, 8:09 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
1¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$146
Family rank
#8 of 16
16 outcomes · Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Closes
Oct 4, 2026
Family volume
$3.6M
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 1¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Oct 4, 2026
Identifier
0x1991f63d…a1fb
Event family
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$3.6M
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Flávio Bolsonaro 61¢
Current share
8%
Flávio Bolsonaro
polymarket · 0x6114306f724135bd1db2f5f3169386decf18f618653c196ef0a6c1afd27f4c73
Renan Santos
polymarket · 0x83030b249525db4c0bcd83a915776442f4ea32d2fba10825fca4abeb51512d8f
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
polymarket · 0x8ee27c276a1bee094293751285d8a6697674b023196cb21fdd14bf3ca12f6ec0
Fernando Haddad
polymarket · 0x0f8a16fa8809127bc86712e24cea9314cf1eb000c69150ff01b9f10f166903f5
Romeu Zema
polymarket · 0xa68adbb0fedef76cef5c6e1ab2c2027704233fc5b6389037eb4d3565952892da
Michelle Bolsonaro
polymarket · 0x000e7d579cf57fd0b8428656d385c57f3c6e7f8e5ffe9b7a9955fa2ffd2cd260
Camilo Santana
polymarket · 0x8576ba0a2bbe51db4f61c513059475a09e0cb0bd754b955fce0ddc7793ffa08f
Ronaldo Caiado
polymarket · 0x1991f63d7497ae667a9b78932ec8834ee411bdce4272b5fd42a1cf9f05cca1fb
Geraldo Alckmin
polymarket · 0xce4c63006ae8c2690d9da01aff225c4ff9258a9722a86ffad4bb7964d20d0bc3
Jair Bolsonaro
polymarket · 0x61fc517c2b0d6f945868070a3ac722bfa35f07154d34bec2f9bfe41436098bce
Tereza Cristina
polymarket · 0x178b80b71955607500875f59a6bfe67bfac7428f4650cb3d219f1f81bd5d7d5f
Ratinho Júnior
polymarket · 0xbc08327dd1ef7486e5f8bb3e662b5d484518ae891a39b6893cbb02f3119ad018
Tarcisio de Freitas
polymarket · 0xfe963a6028277fed1de25b6ca8f640bc7c028e4ef0d0e4f4ff4f5daf5f9ae824
Eduardo Bolsonaro
polymarket · 0xca31cf97c3beadd7e4002b6c9b9d787164c26675f915b65fb1ce9fb858b8e20c
Eduardo Leite
polymarket · 0x45933d8382439be6ffbd714ffc412d549e9ff5e58cc0c4165b68cfc41a897c64
Aldo Rebelo
polymarket · 0xb7703a974306001b283bc071234f1f04c832e793820ba284788e688d305201bf
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.