Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

This market displays extreme mispricing indicators with a 4¢ price generating an implausible 5,227% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe illiquidity or a structural arbitrage opportunity despite the healthy $91.7K daily volume. The 6,002% realized volatility and 6.76 vol ratio indicate violent price swings disconnected from fundamental Brazilian electoral dynamics, with the price quadrupling from 1¢ to 4¢ over seven days on just 1.6 information arrivals per hour. With 168 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a low-liquidity trap where thin order books are amplifying small trades into outsized percentage moves rather than reflecting genuine conviction that Romeu Zema—currently São Paulo's governor—has only a 4% chance of finishing second in a crowded field.

Resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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