Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

The 22¢ price implies a modest 22% probability that Lula finishes second in Brazil's 2026 first round, though the extreme 758% implied yield on the Yes side suggests significant mispricing or speculative positioning rather than fundamental conviction. The market shows unusual volatility with realized volatility at 1317% and a vol ratio of 4.39, combined with a sharp 7-point price climb over seven days (15¢ to 22¢), indicating either new information arrival or thin liquidity ($849.7k daily volume against $18.4m open interest) driving outsized moves. With 171 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this appears to be a speculative play on Lula's political trajectory rather than a consensus forecast, particularly given the 5¢ spread and cliff risk index of 4 suggesting elevated uncertainty near resolution.

Resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade