Spread: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (-1.5)

Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that Spread: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (-1.5). This contract trades at 20¢ on Polymarket, closing April 25, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $143.8K open interest and a massive 60¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting the quoted 33¢ price may not reflect true market consensus.

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20¢
Bid/Ask 10/30¢·Spread 20¢·Vol $0·OI $271.722·Closes Apr 25, 2026·2d remaining
0x91b08426cc4785403eb31a889ae5fcc6da0fb0c7f4f61e1e61f54fe919a83e07
7-day price100 snapshots · 5 regime
42¢17¢ current
Apr 1913¢Apr 22

Analysis

3d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $143.8K open interest and a massive 60¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting the quoted 33¢ price may not reflect true market consensus. The implied yield exceeding 13,000% on the "Yes" side is a red flag indicating mispricing rather than genuine opportunity, likely driven by the wide spread and minimal trading activity. With only 6 days to expiry and a sharp 8¢ price decline over the past week, this appears to be a stale or abandoned market where the resolution outcome (Gimcheon winning by 2+ goals in K-League) may already be known or the game details incomplete.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming K-League game, scheduled for April 25 at 3:30 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Gimcheon Sangmu FC" if Gimcheon Sangmu FC win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Bucheon FC 1995". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on kleague.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 54188.8%
IY (No) 4834.9%
Adj IY 27094%
CRI 3
Overround 1.5%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)54188.8%
IY (No)4834.9%
Adj IY27094%
CRI3
Overround1.5%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
20¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 5:58:48 PM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 5:53:23 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x91b08426cc4785403eb31a889ae5fcc6da0fb0c7f4f61e1e61f54fe919a83e07 yes 100

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