Spread: Bucheon FC 1995 (-2.5)

Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Spread: Bucheon FC 1995 (-2.5). This contract trades at 9¢ on Polymarket, closing April 25, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $148k open interest and a massive 57¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting the $148k figure may be stale or inflated.

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9¢
Bid/Ask 1/17¢·Spread 16¢·Vol $0·OI $281.978·Closes Apr 25, 2026·2d remaining
0xc94e812510f66c987be673fe29fc1e36a4f0796ff3d9a4c79ad92464338ec0b6
7-day price140 snapshots · 3 regime
42¢4¢ current
Apr 194¢Apr 22

Analysis

3d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $148k open interest and a massive 57¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting the $148k figure may be stale or inflated. The implied yield exceeding 13,000% for the Yes side reflects the 33¢ price's disconnect from realistic K-League outcomes—a 3+ goal margin victory is genuinely rare, making this pricing potentially exploitable if liquidity materializes. With only 6 days to expiry and a sharp 8¢ price decline over 7 days, the market appears to be correcting toward fair value, though the near-zero volume raises questions about whether any meaningful correction can occur before resolution.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming K-League game, scheduled for April 25 at 3:30 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Bucheon FC 1995" if Bucheon FC 1995 win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Gimcheon Sangmu FC". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on kleague.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Indicators

IY (Yes) >100,000%
IY (No) 1600.8%
Adj IY 50000%
CRI 10
Overround 1.5%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)>100,000%
IY (No)1600.8%
Adj IY50000%
CRI10
Overround1.5%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
16¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 6:00:05 PM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 5:53:23 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xc94e812510f66c987be673fe29fc1e36a4f0796ff3d9a4c79ad92464338ec0b6 yes 100

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