Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Gimcheon Sangmu FC: O/U 2.5

Prediction markets currently give a 43% probability that Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Gimcheon Sangmu FC: O/U 2.5. This contract trades at 43¢ on Polymarket, closing April 25, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $213.919 in open interest, suggesting trapped liquidity and potential settlement risk.

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43¢
Bid/Ask 38/47¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $0·OI $2,257.066·Closes Apr 25, 2026·2d remaining
0xf6af2918a345d785ad89d52e8d2d20306df79236966728f0a7c38983ebbda363
7-day price28 snapshots · 2 regime
51¢43¢ current
Apr 2043¢Apr 22

Analysis

3d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $213.919 in open interest, suggesting trapped liquidity and potential settlement risk. The astronomical implied yield of 6581.3% on both sides reflects the massive 56¢ spread and near-expiry timing (6 days to a 3:30 AM ET kickoff), indicating severe mispricing or market dysfunction rather than genuine arbitrage. The neutral regime score and balanced 50¢ pricing provide no directional signal, but the cliff risk index of 1 warns that this market may face resolution complications given the low trading activity and tight timeframe.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming K-League game between Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC, scheduled for April 25 at 3:30 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Bucheon FC 1995 and Gimcheon Sangmu FC combine to score 3 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 3, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on kleague.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 21456.2%
IY (No) 12210.7%
Adj IY 10728%
CRI 1
Overround 1.5%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)21456.2%
IY (No)12210.7%
Adj IY10728%
CRI1
Overround1.5%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
9¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 5:58:50 PM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 5:53:23 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xf6af2918a345d785ad89d52e8d2d20306df79236966728f0a7c38983ebbda363 yes 100

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