Will Trevor Merrell advance from the CA-04 primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Trevor Merrell advance from the CA-04 primary election?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Polymarket, closing June 2, 2026. Trevor Merrell's CA-04 primary advancement contract is pricing in just a 16% win probability with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 4102% on the Yes side, suggesting either severe underpricing or minimal market confidence in his viability.
Analysis
Trevor Merrell's CA-04 primary advancement contract is pricing in just a 16% win probability with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 4102% on the Yes side, suggesting either severe underpricing or minimal market confidence in his viability. The $0 in 24-hour volume combined with $12.1M open interest and a tight 2¢ spread indicates this is a low-liquidity, potentially stale market where the price may not reflect current campaign dynamics. With 47 days until the June 2, 2026 primary and a Cliff Risk Index of 5, this contract carries significant binary event risk and warrants caution given the disconnect between the astronomical yield and actual trading activity.
Resolution rules
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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sf trade 0x05371808e5c89d903911b9b3709c562e39e8cb0c842892278ef6e318225d0577 yes 100