Will Randy Villegas advance from the CA-22 Primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 59% probability that Will Randy Villegas advance from the CA-22 Primary?. This contract trades at 59¢ on Polymarket, closing June 2, 2026. This Randy Villegas CA-22 primary market shows extreme volatility (872% realized, 3.71 vol ratio) with a modest 56¢ price and dangerously high implied yields (624.5% for Yes, 1012% for No), suggesting severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns despite $14.4M open interest.
Analysis
This Randy Villegas CA-22 primary market shows extreme volatility (872% realized, 3.71 vol ratio) with a modest 56¢ price and dangerously high implied yields (624.5% for Yes, 1012% for No), suggesting severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns despite $14.4M open interest. Zero 24-hour volume and a Cliff Risk Index of 1 indicate the market is essentially frozen with no price discovery mechanism, making the current 56¢ quote potentially unreliable with 46 days to resolution. The 3¢ price movement over seven days combined with 1.9 info arrivals per hour suggests market participants are waiting for campaign developments before committing capital.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 22nd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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sf trade 0x2db08670f64b492d2fb4f925b46447a89558494595b0e4eeb8cac8db9a9c9d28 yes 100