Club Tijuana vs. CF Pachuca: O/U 3.5

Prediction markets currently give a 31% probability that Club Tijuana vs. CF Pachuca: O/U 3.5. This contract trades at 31¢ on Polymarket, closing April 23, 2026. This market shows extreme distress signals with zero 24-hour volume despite $77.5K open interest and a massive 7¢ spread, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential stranded positions.

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31¢
Bid/Ask 29/32¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $9.125·OI $15,804.127·Closes Apr 23, 2026·0d remaining
0xed896727b465dd2cae3d9bc5416438c71d8e553850f9d7fca770bc837a06f33c
7-day price134 snapshots · 5 regime
58¢30¢ current
Apr 1424¢Apr 22

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extreme distress signals with zero 24-hour volume despite $77.5K open interest and a massive 7¢ spread, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential stranded positions. The astronomical implied yields (10,900% for Yes, 3,449% for No) and 1,889% realized volatility indicate this is a broken market likely awaiting resolution rather than active trading. With only 6 days to expiry and the match scheduled for April 22, the near-zero price movement (35¢ to 36¢) combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 2 suggests the market may be frozen or experiencing technical issues rather than reflecting genuine probability discovery.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming Liga MX game between Club Tijuana and CF Pachuca, scheduled for April 22 at 11:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Club Tijuana and CF Pachuca combine to score 4 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 4, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on ligamx.net. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Indicators

Adj IY 50000%
CRI 2
Overround 1.8%
▶ Full indicator table (3)
IndicatorValue
Adj IY50000%
CRI2
Overround1.8%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
3¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 5:58:23 PM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 5:53:23 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xed896727b465dd2cae3d9bc5416438c71d8e553850f9d7fca770bc837a06f33c yes 100

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