Club Universitario de Deportes vs. CD Garcilaso: O/U 4.5

Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Club Universitario de Deportes vs. CD Garcilaso: O/U 4.5. This contract trades at 14¢ on Polymarket, closing April 23, 2026. This Peru Liga 1 over/under market shows extreme distress signals with a 46,892% implied yield on the Yes side despite only 18¢ pricing, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine probability assessment.

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14¢
Bid/Ask 12/15¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $0·OI $919.925·Closes Apr 23, 2026·0d remaining
0x1db92c7b86ff8e905faac13ea059034fe7a6f8f1dd208668844433a1a72d5046
7-day price104 snapshots · 5 regime
31¢13¢ current
Apr 1813¢Apr 22

Analysis

3d ago

This Peru Liga 1 over/under market shows extreme distress signals with a 46,892% implied yield on the Yes side despite only 18¢ pricing, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine probability assessment. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $179k open interest and a 20¢ spread indicates the market is essentially frozen with no recent trading activity, making the price potentially stale ahead of the April 22 match. With only 4 days to expiry and a realized volatility of 823%, this appears to be a low-liquidity trap where the extreme yield metrics are artifacts of thin order books rather than actionable trading opportunities.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming Peru Liga 1 game between Club Universitario de Deportes and CD Garcilaso, scheduled for April 22 at 9:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Club Universitario de Deportes and CD Garcilaso combine to score 5 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 5, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on liga1.pe. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Indicators

Adj IY 42310%
CRI 7
Overround 1.8%
LAS 0.15
▶ Full indicator table (4)
IndicatorValue
Adj IY42310%
CRI7
Overround1.8%
LAS0.15

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
3¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 5:57:21 PM
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 5:53:23 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x1db92c7b86ff8e905faac13ea059034fe7a6f8f1dd208668844433a1a72d5046 yes 100

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