<48% · Colombia Presidential Election 1st Round: Turnout
<48% is priced at 6¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 4¢ bid, 10¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 6 inside Colombia Presidential Election 1st Round: Turnout?.
Price history
6¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Outcome
<48%
Rank
#6 of 6
Leader
54-57% 37¢
Range
7¢-37¢
Family volume
$5K
Identifier
0x1d39c4a1...a0b5
May 28, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC · 13m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
10¢
Spread
6¢
24h volume
$166
Family rank
#6 of 6
6 outcomes · Colombia Presidential Election 1st Round: Turnout?
Closes
May 31, 2026
Family volume
$5K
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 10¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 31, 2026
Identifier
0x1d39c4a1…a0b5
Event family
Colombia Presidential Election 1st Round: Turnout.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$5K
Outcomes
6
Highest price
54-57% 37¢
Current share
27%
54-57%
polymarket · 0x85891d3d64d31941b042c277f8d2182fe05d36a317e457cc8c3d07009d21972d
57-60%
polymarket · 0x9f741b859dc92f9018257354231e5522ff16f72ef44c649a6e193b99f1ed2a5c
51-54%
polymarket · 0x42ea1c69f5d319d0dfb4e4b3bc67f8b62d76a43eecd9f951e24adb2fc5e9dfe9
60%+
polymarket · 0xba55f0eabef3afd1e0e2ef9cc025c99e396aef5a7cbb1f25e9fd296e72ef0663
48-51%
polymarket · 0x258b1127a71bed3958a02bb6fb1efdea5a4d2fe318e07c38c44ba7f7d0fb2613
<48%
polymarket · 0x1d39c4a1a36a4eb905fceb33b6e37dcde0edf73ce338ace175c218427b3aa0b5
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
Prediction market liquidity: why depth matters more than volume for serious traders
Why orderbook depth matters more than volume for prediction market traders. Real Kalshi examples, liquidity scoring framework, and how to avoid slippage.
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
US Midterm Elections 2026 Prediction Markets: Trading the Battle for Congress
A deep‑dive guide for prediction market traders on the 2026 US midterm elections: House and Senate control odds, key races, Trump’s impact, economic and approval scenarios, polling accuracy, and data‑driven trading strategies.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 6% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.