Colombia Presidential Election 1st Round

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that turnout in Colombia's first-round presidential election will fall between 54-57%. Turnout in Colombian elections has historically varied substantially based on voter engagement, regional participation patterns, and competition dynamics among candidates. The current 48% probability suggests modest confidence in this particular turnout band, with meaningful probability mass assigned to higher turnout (60%+) and adjacent ranges. Key drivers include voter enthusiasm around leading candidates, mobilization capacity of political campaigns, and socioeconomic factors affecting participation across regions. The outcome will be definitively resolved when official turnout figures are published by Colombia's electoral authority following the election, making this a binary outcome that depends entirely on administrative reporting rather than subjective interpretation.

• ›Historical Colombian first-round turnout has ranged from approximately 48% to 54% over recent presidential cycles, constraining the plausibility of extreme values
• ›The 60%+ turnout contract trading at 27¢ suggests meaningful probability markets assign to unusually high participation, likely driven by competitive candidate fields or exceptional mobilization
• ›Turnout in the 48-51% and 51-54% bands each trade between 24-26¢, indicating near-equal probability assigned to lower adjacent ranges versus the current leader
• ›Recent polling intensity and media engagement levels would provide leading indicators of turnout expectations weeks before the official vote
• ›Election date and official turnout release by Colombian electoral authority (CNE) represent the sole mechanism for resolving this contract with objective data

What moved the line

• May 25Turnout?: 48-51%↓7pp26→19¢ · Polymarket
• May 26Turnout?: 54-57%↓6pp43→37¢ · Polymarket
• May 20Turnout?: 54-57%↑5pp44→49¢ · Polymarket
• May 20Turnout?: 48-51%↓4pp25→21¢ · Polymarket
• May 24Turnout?: 48-51%↑4pp22→26¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in election 2026

• Venice Mayoral Election Winnerlast 92% · 1d
• Will Greg Abbott endorse Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate Runoff before May 26, 2026last 15% · 1d
• Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff: 1.2–1.5Mlast 76% · 2d
• Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff: 0.6–0.9Mlast 76% · 2d
• Galway-West By-Election Winnerlast 97% · 2d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds