54-57% · Colombia Presidential Election 1st Round: Turnout
54-57% is priced at 37¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 31¢ bid, 42¢ ask, 11¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 6 inside Colombia Presidential Election 1st Round: Turnout?.
Price history
37¢ current
−14¢Contract brief
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Outcome
54-57%
Rank
#1 of 6
Leader
54-57% 37¢
Range
7¢-37¢
Family volume
$4K
Identifier
0x85891d3d...972d
May 26, 2026, 1:08 PM UTC · 2m ago
Implied probability
Bid
31¢
Ask
42¢
Spread
11¢
24h volume
$25
Family rank
#1 of 6
6 outcomes · Colombia Presidential Election 1st Round: Turnout?
Closes
May 31, 2026
Family volume
$4K
Orderbook snapshot
31 / 42¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 31, 2026
Identifier
0x85891d3d…972d
Event family
Colombia Presidential Election 1st Round: Turnout.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$4K
Outcomes
6
Highest price
54-57% 37¢
Current share
13%
54-57%
polymarket · 0x85891d3d64d31941b042c277f8d2182fe05d36a317e457cc8c3d07009d21972d
57-60%
polymarket · 0x9f741b859dc92f9018257354231e5522ff16f72ef44c649a6e193b99f1ed2a5c
48-51%
polymarket · 0x258b1127a71bed3958a02bb6fb1efdea5a4d2fe318e07c38c44ba7f7d0fb2613
60%+
polymarket · 0xba55f0eabef3afd1e0e2ef9cc025c99e396aef5a7cbb1f25e9fd296e72ef0663
51-54%
polymarket · 0x42ea1c69f5d319d0dfb4e4b3bc67f8b62d76a43eecd9f951e24adb2fc5e9dfe9
<48%
polymarket · 0x1d39c4a1a36a4eb905fceb33b6e37dcde0edf73ce338ace175c218427b3aa0b5
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.