What is the current probability for "Eastern Conference Finals Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 8¢ (8% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on July 15, 2026. 83 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Eastern Conference Finals Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 5869.5% and 33.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Eastern Conference Finals Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Eastern Conference Finals Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Eastern Conference Finals Winner?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing July 15, 2026. This Montreal Canadiens Eastern Conference Finals contract trades at a steep 7¢ discount with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 6,382% if the Canadiens win, reflecting extremely long odds in a neutral market regime.

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8¢

Bid/Ask 7/8¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $1,058.04·OI $128,557.53·Closes Jul 15, 2026·83d remaining

KXNHLEAST-26-MTL

7-day price104 snapshots · 110 regime

12¢7¢ current

Apr 85¢Apr 23

Analysis

6d ago

This Montreal Canadiens Eastern Conference Finals contract trades at a steep 7¢ discount with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 6,382% if the Canadiens win, reflecting extremely long odds in a neutral market regime. The 7-day price decline from 7¢ to 6¢ suggests deteriorating sentiment, though the modest $1.8K daily volume and tight 1¢ spread indicate thin liquidity that could amplify price swings as the 90-day expiry approaches. The elevated Cliff Risk Index of 16 warrants caution, as the combination of low probability pricing and illiquid conditions creates potential for sharp moves if market sentiment shifts.

Resolution rules

If Montreal Canadiens wins the Eastern Conference Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 5869.5%

IY (No) 33.3%

Adj IY 5031%

CRI 13

RV 791%

VR 1.23

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	5869.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	33.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	5031%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	13	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	791%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.23	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.14	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/23/2026, 11:15:57 PM

Observability mediumEvent type sports

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/23/2026, 11:08:13 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNHLEAST-26-MTL yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →