May 31 · Evo Morales arrested by
May 31 is priced at 5¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 8¢ bid, 9¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside Evo Morales arrested by...?.
Price history
5¢ current
−45¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
May 31
Rank
#2 of 2
Leader
June 30 34¢
Range
9¢-34¢
Family volume
$29K
Identifier
0x34754b21...c723
May 27, 2026, 9:08 AM UTC · 21m ago
Implied probability
Bid
8¢
Ask
9¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$703
Family rank
#2 of 2
2 outcomes · Evo Morales arrested by...?
Closes
May 31, 2026
Family volume
$29K
Orderbook snapshot
8 / 9¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 31, 2026
Identifier
0x34754b21…c723
Event family
Evo Morales arrested by.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$29K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
June 30 34¢
Current share
98%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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