Evo Morales arrested by...
Leader sits at 22% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
June 30
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
5¢
May 31
Spread
17pp
contested
24h volume
$769
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
36 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Evo Morales arrested by
Evo Morales arrested by...?: May 31
0x34754b…c723
Evo Morales arrested by...?: June 30
0x2b5473…5439
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Evo Morales, the former president of Bolivia, will be arrested by June 30, 2026. The 51% probability for a June 30 resolution versus 9% for May 31 suggests traders expect the arrest scenario to remain unresolved in the immediate term but potentially materialize within the broader timeframe. Morales has faced legal challenges and arrest warrants related to alleged statutory rape and human trafficking charges; his political status and ability to evade capture in Bolivia or abroad are central to the outcome. The main factors pushing probabilities are Bolivian government enforcement capacity, Morales's current location, and any changes in his legal status or political immunity. A shift in Bolivia's political leadership, extradition requests, or explicit arrest warrants would be the primary catalyst determining resolution.
- ›Morales's current physical location and whether he remains within Bolivia's jurisdiction or flees to a country without extradition agreements
- ›Bolivia's willingness and capacity to pursue arrest, which depends on domestic political stability and control of security forces
- ›Status of pending legal cases and whether courts issue enforceable arrest warrants before June 30, 2026
- ›Regional political dynamics and whether neighboring countries provide asylum or reject Morales entry
- ›Changes in Bolivia's government or judicial leadership that could alter prosecution priorities
What moved the line
- May 22June 30↓17pp51→34¢ · Polymarket
- May 21May 31↓13pp21→8¢ · Polymarket
- May 23June 30↓12pp34→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 18May 31↓6pp25→19¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (22% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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