June 30 · Evo Morales arrested by
June 30 is priced at 22¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 21¢ bid, 22¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Evo Morales arrested by...?.
Price history
22¢ current
−29¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
June 30
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
June 30 22¢
Range
5¢-22¢
Family volume
$28K
Identifier
0x2b54732f...5439
May 25, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC · 28m ago
Implied probability
Bid
21¢
Ask
22¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$20
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · Evo Morales arrested by...?
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Family volume
$28K
Orderbook snapshot
21 / 22¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
0x2b54732f…5439
Event family
Evo Morales arrested by.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$28K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
June 30 22¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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