This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Consider buying on Kalshi at lower price
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Current4.0% | 100.0% |
3.9% | 89.9% |
3.8% | 75.5% |
3.7% | 68.0% |
3.6% | 33.5% |
3.5% | 28.0% |
3.0% | 15.0% |
2.0% | 9.0% |
1.0% | 5.0% |
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Kalshi | 2.0% | $3,681 | Trade |