Belgium to win World Cup Group G
Belgium is priced at 63¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 62¢ bid, 63¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 4 inside World Cup Group G Winner.
Price history
63¢ current
−3¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
Belgium
Rank
#1 of 4
Leader
Belgium 63¢
Range
4¢-63¢
Family volume
$531K
Identifier
0x1e285f49...c2d2
Jun 17, 2026, 7:08 AM UTC · 10m ago
Implied probability
Bid
62¢
Ask
63¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$15K
Family rank
#1 of 4
4 outcomes · World Cup Group G Winner
Closes
Jun 27, 2026
Family volume
$531K
Orderbook snapshot
62 / 63¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 27, 2026
Identifier
0x1e285f49…c2d2
Event family
World Cup Group G Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$531K
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Belgium 63¢
Current share
41%
Belgium
polymarket · 0x1e285f49c483634426c54834f840f6bfe780e0039eb0ad31357b936600b7c2d2
Egypt
polymarket · 0xd5f291e4d2dfc44a42ee0eb1d83f2e42a90ce943a71f643cadf4e98c5a6ec3eb
Iran
polymarket · 0x5bf2c54fb4ca9d63427816cd88ab8f7b5ede5b2b9166c366a940f1a0d6d0a290
New Zealand
polymarket · 0x6d4e4bf288d8caa229a72a48b985722df1b803e11a9d0d7e9a3fa8275ecccb34
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
sports
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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Event Probability API
Read 63% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.