Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Polymarket, closing June 27, 2026. Iran's 8¢ price reflects a heavily discounted probability despite the team's legitimate qualification chances, with the astronomical 5,919% implied yield on "Yes" suggesting either severe mispricing or extreme tail-risk pricing by the market.
Analysis
Iran's 8¢ price reflects a heavily discounted probability despite the team's legitimate qualification chances, with the astronomical 5,919% implied yield on "Yes" suggesting either severe mispricing or extreme tail-risk pricing by the market. The 7-day surge from 3¢ to 8¢ combined with 1,333% realized volatility and a 1.85 vol ratio indicates this is a highly speculative position rather than a fundamental reassessment, particularly given the modest $166.98 daily volume relative to $36.6M open interest. With 71 days to the World Cup and a neutral regime, the extreme yield appears to reflect low conviction betting rather than genuine belief in Iran's group-winning odds.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Trade
sf trade 0x5bf2c54fb4ca9d63427816cd88ab8f7b5ede5b2b9166c366a940f1a0d6d0a290 yes 100