What is the current probability for "Fuse FDV above $5B one day after launch?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 41¢ (41% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2028. 609 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Fuse FDV above $5B one day after launch?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 86.2% and 41.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Fuse FDV above $5B one day after launch?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Fuse FDV above $5B one day after launch?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 41% probability that Fuse FDV above $5B one day after launch?. This contract trades at 41¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2028.

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41¢

Bid/Ask 6/75¢·Spread 69¢·Vol $4.05·OI $23.091·Closes Jan 1, 2028·609d remaining

0xbf8a584022256aae30766a662b9e4d746ba21ce0aea437390fb5e137c0296bee

7-day price579 snapshots · 4 regime

53¢41¢ current

Apr 2321¢May 1

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Fuse's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Fuse will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Fuse (https://x.com/fuseenergy) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Indicators

IY (Yes) 86.2%

IY (No) 41.6%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 1

Overround 2.8%

LAS 1.68

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	86.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	41.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	2.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	1.68	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

5/1/2026, 1:38:22 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 5/1/2026, 1:23:37 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xbf8a584022256aae30766a662b9e4d746ba21ce0aea437390fb5e137c0296bee yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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