What is the current probability for "Will Bitcoin be below $40000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 22¢ (22% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Bitcoin be below $40000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 539.8% and 38.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Bitcoin be below $40000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Bitcoin be below $40000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Will Bitcoin be below $40000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The "Yes" side offers an exceptional 446% risk-adjusted implied yield, suggesting the market may be underpricing Bitcoin's downside risk to sub-$40k levels over the next 259 days—a roughly 38% decline from current prices.

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22¢

Bid/Ask 21/22¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $2,377.01·OI $172,237.42·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-40000.00

7-day price98 snapshots · 64 regime

34¢21¢ current

Apr 818¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The "Yes" side offers an exceptional 446% risk-adjusted implied yield, suggesting the market may be underpricing Bitcoin's downside risk to sub-$40k levels over the next 259 days—a roughly 38% decline from current prices. The sharp 6-cent price drop over 7 days combined with elevated realized volatility (320%) and a Vol Ratio of 1.52 indicates recent bearish momentum, though the low 24h volume of $1,527 raises liquidity concerns for position sizing. With a neutral regime score and modest info arrival rate, this appears to be a structural mispricing rather than a reaction to breaking news, making it worth monitoring for mean reversion or confirmation of the downtrend.

Resolution rules

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is below $40000.00 starting Feb 5, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 539.8%

IY (No) 38.1%

Adj IY 514%

CRI 4

RV 442%

VR 1.84

▶ Full indicator table (10)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	539.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	38.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	514%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	442%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.84	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
EE	15.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	0.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.05	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.442

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:49:11 PM

SF edge 16.0¢ noObservability lowEvent type financial

Edges (1)

NO +16¢thesis — US freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs Iran — each action tells the wo

Has thesisHas orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-40000.00 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →Realized Volatility →