Will Helen Ogbu win the 2026 Galway West by-election?
This contract is priced at 1¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 2¢ ask, 2¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
11
Family volume
$31K
Best sibling
Sheila Garrity 3¢
Ticker
0xb83b8f52…2d8e
Price history
1¢ current
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 2¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Mar 31, 2027
Identifier
0xb83b8f52…2d8e
Event family
Galway-West By-Election Winner.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$31K
Outcomes
11
Highest price
Noel Thomas 44¢
Current share
4%
Helen Ogbu
polymarket · 0xb83b8f5249532d56fa9a5e4b6973f273d04de16804c6e35a4de81c72806b2d8e
Sheila Garrity
polymarket · 0xa46d2b031e0c57fb04888e3747747f955a71369881f5460b2fc23e923f878ecc
Noel Thomas
polymarket · 0x338e693bdb81d0cb315284ac319a051eb9d7fd8f58ca94580369093828162c92
Mark Lohan
polymarket · 0x8b2b903ff76adf60a562841cac343151da1d2e4f5f9b9243ca802179511d236b
Thomas Welby
polymarket · 0xf02705eaed652d019fa4c373402e13c8136df70d9e14a1df869cc41678513049
Mike Cubbard
polymarket · 0x4884312a9e0c3fe05be1ca8b872f7e7818affbd20b10c047ac1a74bac9b92797
Seán Kyne
polymarket · 0x341d6a969d9243889772ba5c8889db5fad54fc1b9cd8fd14f264742e6e97973b
Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich
polymarket · 0x7f97e93d37e5e207984d9f68b3dff3013025f9b2ecf9f25e64c690f2f88a0c56
Orla Nugent
polymarket · 0xe81314deb37ff5c17002bdadbc31ee3e2aefce1159630590ec57838513a457a0
Niall Murphy
polymarket · 0x8c33e9363ac336d6ace62f64e10999b5014ea5936cae96d6f8c932b2757a6800
Denman Rooke
polymarket · 0x6123ac6f7291638159d8079ed8de1627cd782be26db6b0c51855e82cc538c76a
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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