Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?

This market has collapsed dramatically from 18¢ to 6¢ over seven days, suggesting a significant de-escalation in perceived conflict risk despite the extreme 810% realized volatility and 41,542% implied yield on the "Yes" side. With only 14 days until expiry and just $17,857 in 24-hour volume against $83,472 open interest, liquidity is thin relative to positions, creating potential cliff risk (index of 16) if late-breaking news emerges. The 1¢ spread and neutral regime score indicate the market has largely priced out near-term military action, making this a high-risk, low-probability tail event bet.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify. The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Indicators

Regime

Trade