Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?
This contract is priced at 43¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 39¢ bid, 47¢ ask, 8¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
13
Family volume
$6.4M
Best sibling
4 6¢
Ticker
0x497a043a…c9cf
Price history
43¢ current
+29¢Orderbook snapshot
39 / 47¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x497a043a…c9cf
Event family
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$6.4M
Outcomes
13
Highest price
3 43¢
Current share
30%
3
polymarket · 0x497a043a5a848906d653e4a60e34df7131a9d7e059ce2ce70f05b4311360c9cf
4
polymarket · 0x4437c8690e2edae1ab7acb0dcb40e536109ae6366e630d97f0bd764c9545ae57
6
polymarket · 0x85d949e1aa73caddf263dc356e6f93125f9889dc3af14b243b3428823e2e0a81
7
polymarket · 0x9417863b1b7a9c394ae8f95b12445d3aebf9a916e9a7201f147af90c2b87f668
8
polymarket · 0xf0aa26f04c3531f407c1e2bf6790a9e7d5e63885d14f0c262b5dd7556d9baeac
5
polymarket · 0xaddf36ab28b5c372e4ed06a17767eefd101b363b846cf3c223efc31f8cd260a8
10
polymarket · 0xd19d541ce5fe1970e9b19976bae0dd259eeaa558129d5373e6479af72e8f412e
9
polymarket · 0xe7ef027386c6ba19db343b5b685e19035afccaf8891c814e6fbdc14dc259c9a3
13
polymarket · 0x0e4ade6df320ac6a452cb8bbed1e875ea29335b2d57e13df16f0d21e29ef3fb4
11
polymarket · 0x0a43b74be16caef0ab4543343cf854abbe5321f0517b29437f56c9da2d96fa60
14
polymarket · 0xd5f6a95f759ac6a3bbde671ce3eca5261385d70e95f4c3bb8233fc86e08028d2
12
polymarket · 0xc0016ebf2013957e354d646ec8c7977b6102337b25e0676895912a675ad1b785
15+
polymarket · 0xc89de60e9a7233124b8487e46909fed1e53b502f201955c892cf93f400cf573c
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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