How many times will Lawrence O'Donnell say Trump during next The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 38% across 19 contracts. Kalshi at 37%, Polymarket at 46% — a 9pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
37%
16 contracts
Polymarket
46%
3 contracts
Cross-venue gap
9pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$21K
19 contracts
Top contract
55¢
$5K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 37¢ · Polymarket 46¢ · 9pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (37¢, 16 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (46¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
7 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026” vs “How many gol”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 13
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-13
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 14
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-14
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 12
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-12
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 10
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-10
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 15
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26MAY-15
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 160
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-160
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 170
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-170
Cluster 2
How many gol
How many golf major championships will Scottie Scheffler win in 2026?: 2+ golf major championship wins
KXGOLFMAJORS-SSCH26-2
How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?: 1-100
0x326df6…4a96
How many golf major championships will Scottie Scheffler win in 2026?: 1+ golf major championship wins
KXGOLFMAJORS-SSCH26-1
Cluster 3
How many oil
How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?: At least 14.00M bpd
KXBARRELS-26-14.00
How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?: At least 14.10M bpd
KXBARRELS-26-14.10
How many oil rigs will the US have at the end of the year?: At least 430
KXOILRIGS-26-430
Cluster 4
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026
Cluster 5
How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending May 2, 2026
How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending May 2, 2026?: At least 210000
KXJOBLESSCLAIMS-26MAY07-210000
How many initial jobless claims will there be the week ending May 2, 2026?: At least 200000
KXJOBLESSCLAIMS-26MAY07-200000
Cluster 6
How many spots on the Billboard Hot 100's top 10 will Drake hold for the week of May 30, 2026
Cluster 7
How many freshmen players will be drafted in the top 10
How many freshmen players will be drafted in the top 10?: 10 freshmen drafted
KXNBADRAFTCAT-26FRE-10
What moved the line
- May 1At least 14.00M bpd↑37pp10→47¢ · Kalshi
- May 2At least 14.00M bpd↓34pp47→13¢ · Kalshi
- May 1At least 14.10M bpd↑32pp5→37¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30At least 14.00M bpd↓31pp41→10¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30At least 14.10M bpd↓29pp34→5¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in trump
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.