How many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 43% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
43%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
3 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
162 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026” vs “How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026
Cluster 2
How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year
How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?: At least 14.00M bpd
KXBARRELS-26-14.00
Analysis
This contract predicts Iran will successfully target 6–7 ships by April 30, 2026, currently priced at 19% probability. The assessment reflects the current regional security environment and historical patterns of maritime incidents in contested waters. The low probability suggests markets expect either a reduction in hostile activities or improved defensive measures during this period. Key drivers include ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the operational capacity of Iranian maritime forces, and the effectiveness of international naval presence in critical shipping lanes. The resolution hinges on verified reports of successful ship targeting—requiring documented attacks with confirmed Iranian attribution and demonstrated impact. Any escalation in regional conflict, changes in naval deployments, or shifts in Iranian strategic posture could materially alter this probability before the April 30 deadline.
- ›Historical frequency of confirmed Iranian maritime attacks in the past 12-24 months and their success rates against commercial or military vessels
- ›Current international naval presence and defensive systems deployed in the Persian Gulf and surrounding waters
- ›Geopolitical developments and statements from relevant parties indicating intended escalation or de-escalation by April 2026
- ›Definitional clarity on what constitutes 'successfully targeting' a ship and availability of verification mechanisms for resolution
- ›Seasonal and operational factors affecting maritime activity and Iranian military capability during the forecast period
What moved the line
- Jul 19At least 14.00M bpd↑5pp72→77¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 19Above 170↑3pp15→18¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 18At least 14.00M bpd↑3pp69→72¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 21At least 14.00M bpd↓3pp78→75¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in iran
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- Will Marco Rubio visit Iran before Jul 1, 2026last 3% · 26d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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