How many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 28% across 9 contracts. Kalshi at 21%, Polymarket at 54% — a 33pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
21%
7 contracts
Polymarket
54%
2 contracts
Cross-venue gap
33pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
9 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
207 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 21¢ · Polymarket 54¢ · 33pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (21¢, 7 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (54¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
5 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “How many gol” vs “How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
How many gol
How many golf major championships will Scottie Scheffler win in 2026?: 1+ golf major championship wins
KXGOLFMAJORS-SSCH26-1
How many golf major championships will Rory McIlroy win in 2026?: 3+ golf major championship wins
KXGOLFMAJOR-26RMCI-3
How many golf major championships will Rory McIlroy win in 2026?: 2+ golf major championship wins
KXGOLFMAJOR-26RMCI-2
How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?: 1-100
0x326df6…4a96
Cluster 2
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026
Cluster 3
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?: 5
0xaddf36…60a8
Cluster 4
How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year
How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?: At least 14.00M bpd
KXBARRELS-26-14.00
Cluster 5
How many freshmen players will be drafted in the top 10
How many freshmen players will be drafted in the top 10?: 10 freshmen drafted
KXNBADRAFTCAT-26FRE-10
What moved the line
- Jun 2Above 170↓5pp32→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21-100↑5pp64→69¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 45↑4pp30→34¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 3Above 160↓4pp38→34¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 7Above 170↑4pp29→33¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in iran
- Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cuplast 97% · 2d
- Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?: 80+last 9% · 4d
- Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?: 0-10last 96% · 4d
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of Maylast 3% · 5d
- Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by May 31?: ↓ 1.5Mlast 40% · 5d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Related reading
Iran Peace Deal Odds Collapse as June Deadlines Loom
The probability of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by June 30 dropped 6 cents to 17%, and by July 31 fell 11 cents to 28%. This swift repricing reflects increased skepticism that the parties can reach an agreement in the near term, putting upward pressure on oil risk premium. The 'No Meeting by June 30' contract for US-Iran diplomatic meetings jumped to 67 cents.
Iran Diplomatic Hopes Fade: Peace Deal and Nuclear Contract Odds Slide
The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 crashed 15 points to 24%, and odds on a permanent peace deal by the same date fell below 25%. Oil markets are pricing in sustained geopolitical risk.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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