How many countries will Israel conduct military action against in April?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 21% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
21%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$899
3 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
194 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026” vs “How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 160
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-160
Cluster 2
How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year
How many oil barrels per day will the US produce this year?: At least 14.00M bpd
KXBARRELS-26-14.00
Cluster 3
How many freshmen players will be drafted in the top 10
How many freshmen players will be drafted in the top 10?: 10 freshmen drafted
KXNBADRAFTCAT-26FRE-10
Analysis
This market asks whether Israel will conduct military action against four or more countries during April 2026. At 21% probability, the market suggests this scenario is unlikely but not remote. The assessment reflects current geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Israel's military capabilities, weighed against the diplomatic and military costs of simultaneous multi-country operations. The probability would increase if regional tensions escalate significantly or decrease if diplomatic initiatives gain traction. Key drivers include the status of ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, potential Iranian responses to Israeli actions, and developments in Israeli-Palestinian relations. Resolution depends on how military engagements are classified—whether they must be sustained operations or include limited strikes—making the April 2026 timeframe the critical period for observing actual military actions across multiple nation-states.
- ›Current active conflicts involving Israel and their trajectory toward or away from additional parties by April 2026
- ›The definition of 'military action'—whether limited airstrikes, drone operations, or sustained ground campaigns count equally
- ›Status of Iranian nuclear negotiations and potential Israeli responses that could trigger regional escalation
- ›Diplomatic peace initiatives or ceasefires in existing conflicts that would reduce the likelihood of new military engagements
- ›Historical frequency of Israel conducting simultaneous military operations against multiple countries in any given month
What moved the line
- Jun 20At least 14.00M bpd↑10pp5→15¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Above 160↓7pp30→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18At least 14.00M bpd↓5pp10→5¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 16At least 14.00M bpd↓4pp14→10¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1910 freshmen drafted↑3pp24→27¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
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