Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
This contract is priced at 56¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 55¢ bid, 56¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
6
Family volume
$1.1M
Best sibling
1 37¢
Ticker
0xb60cf824…6920
Market snapshot
0 in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?. The displayed quote is 56¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $421. In the How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026? family, this outcome ranks #1 of 6 by current quote across 6 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 7:23 AM UTC.
Outcome
0
Family rank
#1 of 6
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
56¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Dec 31, 2026
24h volume
$421
Family context
6 outcomes · How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
Quote range
0¢-56¢
Family leader
0 56¢
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 7:23 AM UTC · 10m ago
Venue identifier: 0xb60cf8249d71b05baf2b2d96621b8e69b0617ab7c8a0d175b62b6e8f91726920. Family volume: $1.1M.
Price history
56¢ current
+20¢Orderbook snapshot
55 / 56¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus. Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0xb60cf824…6920
Event family
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$1.1M
Outcomes
6
Highest price
0 56¢
Current share
45%
0
polymarket · 0xb60cf8249d71b05baf2b2d96621b8e69b0617ab7c8a0d175b62b6e8f91726920
1
polymarket · 0x026243ce3148973693b1bbfe17c97082ea6c4b41ee94c0787d5dd725cfccd662
5+
polymarket · 0x3502f4d9275ea8f0b02f7d54db44fb942da8809d3a9671ba3918c3938dd632d7
2
polymarket · 0x73e96451415a300b39b7bb83b0501696d4f7f2a9e52e69988e0e65cee20f12fa
3
polymarket · 0xa238259a45fab99f7950e92f359cafbdcf60e8cb567c3434ef99aac5d643ae6f
4
polymarket · 0x3591f6759eacceea5710e958aa2b4549a3d4edd08bcc1ca621a2c5de34af51c0
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
scientific
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