How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
Leader sits at 56% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 37%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
0
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
37¢
1
Spread
19pp
contested
24h volume
$813
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026
Analysis
This contract prices the probability of zero large volcanic eruptions (VEI ≥4) occurring during 2026 at 54%, meaning markets estimate roughly even odds that the year will experience at least one such eruption. Major volcanic activity depends on geological conditions that operate on multi-year timescales, though forecasting remains inherently uncertain. The current probability reflects baseline expectations adjusted for recent volcanic patterns. Resolution depends on scientific classification of any eruptions that occur during the calendar year 2026, with criteria clearly defined by volcanic explosivity index standards. Uncertainty could shift materially if seismic activity increases at known high-risk volcanic zones or if existing active volcanoes show measurable acceleration in precursor signals.
- ›Baseline volcanic frequency: Historical records show VEI ≥4 eruptions occur roughly once per 1-2 years globally on average, making zero eruptions in a single year plausible but not the most common outcome
- ›Current volcanic activity status: Active monitoring of major volcanic regions (Indonesia, Philippines, Mexico, Iceland) shows present activity levels and whether any volcanoes display accelerating seismic or deformation patterns
- ›Geographic distribution of at-risk volcanoes: The number of volcanoes globally classified as actively restless or in heightened alert status provides a quantifiable baseline for eruption risk assessment
- ›Definition and classification clarity: VEI ≥4 threshold is objective, but borderline eruptions between VEI 3 and 4 may face definitional disputes that could affect contract settlement
- ›Time remaining in 2026: With approximately seven months elapsed, roughly 60% of the year remains, allowing sufficient time for previously dormant volcanoes to activate
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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