Will 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?
This contract is priced at 85¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 83¢ bid, 86¢ ask, 3¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
8
Family volume
$71K
Best sibling
<950 0¢
Ticker
0x8573d651…1d4d
Market snapshot
1250+ in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will 1250 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?. The displayed quote is 85¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports reported volume of $17K. In the How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026? family, this outcome ranks #1 of 8 by current quote across 8 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 5:53 AM UTC.
Outcome
1250+
Family rank
#1 of 8
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
85¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Jan 10, 2027
Reported volume
$17K
Family context
8 outcomes · How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
Quote range
0¢-85¢
Family leader
1250+ 85¢
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 5:53 AM UTC · 6m ago
Venue identifier: 0x8573d651a82cbec45f07062b45f3d57a53767d25f71cee58bc3b8cceba591d4d. Family volume: $71K.
Price history
85¢ current
+29¢Orderbook snapshot
83 / 86¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count. As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time. If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments. The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time. If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jan 10, 2027
Identifier
0x8573d651…1d4d
Event family
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$71K
Outcomes
8
Highest price
1250+ 85¢
Current share
23%
1250+
polymarket · 0x8573d651a82cbec45f07062b45f3d57a53767d25f71cee58bc3b8cceba591d4d
<950
polymarket · 0x6ccd6176f2eafc06ca9811f0dfb19f602d30fe4405979c097dc91c428e573a3a
1200–1249
polymarket · 0xd1557000fc1cfb78db7a0e7a241ec88eddc33dc9261bbdd282a692b32a405a5d
1050–1099
polymarket · 0x432241aa06ba19b8a927cdc6d8e783eaf41eff86b8e38da114724a05f7b14c10
950–999
polymarket · 0x2b6b656cafbe95d68d10bd35774ad1408eb9ef08bbbf090e98497565bf63fc1b
1150–1199
polymarket · 0x36a1c5ecca3ee9bcf8ba8e043b522c1d7a7475101738c3c36156a46fdd81af0b
1000–1049
polymarket · 0x16e8a970acb9a342c75b8ca28311603003db98e35aa9bada3a7599911033cd47
1100–1149
polymarket · 0x24b8558c606d7c644884761a13b9f40dec7cbc6288e053ed5e746ad1cd2d43ff
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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