How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
Leader sits at 85% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 6%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
1250+
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
6¢
1200–1249
Spread
79pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 10, 2027
246 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026
Analysis
This question asks whether the United States will experience 1,250 or more tornadoes during 2026. Currently, prediction markets estimate a 21% probability of this outcome. The forecast reflects uncertainty about severe weather patterns for the full year. Historical US tornado counts typically range from 800 to 1,500 annually, making 1,250 a moderately high threshold. The probability level suggests markets view 2026 as more likely to fall below this mark, though significant seasonal variation and atmospheric conditions could shift expectations. Key drivers include spring and early summer weather patterns—the primary tornado season—and overall atmospheric instability across the Great Plains and Midwest. The National Weather Service will report final 2026 tornado counts in early 2027, and seasonal data releases throughout the year will gradually clarify whether conditions are tracking toward this threshold.
- ›Average annual US tornado count is approximately 1,000-1,200, making 1,250 a moderately elevated target requiring above-median activity
- ›Spring 2026 severe weather patterns (April-June) will largely determine the outcome, as this period typically accounts for 60% of annual tornado activity
- ›El Niño or La Niña conditions and their evolution throughout 2026 materially influence atmospheric instability and severe weather frequency
- ›The 6 percentage-point gap between Polymarket (23%) and Kalshi (17%) suggests disagreement on weighting historical tornado frequency against 2026-specific atmospheric forecasts
- ›Monthly tornado reports from NOAA throughout 2026 will provide cumulative data to recalibrate probability as the year progresses toward resolution
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.