December 31 · Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by
December 31 is priced at 39¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 38¢ bid, 39¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 3 inside Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?.
Price history
39¢ current
−4¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Outcome
December 31
Rank
#1 of 3
Leader
December 31 39¢
Range
11¢-39¢
Family volume
$5.2M
Identifier
0xe846dd72...cafa
Jun 6, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC · 1m ago
Implied probability
Bid
38¢
Ask
39¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$16K
Family rank
#1 of 3
3 outcomes · Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$5.2M
Orderbook snapshot
38 / 39¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0xe846dd72…cafa
Event family
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$5.2M
Outcomes
3
Highest price
December 31 39¢
Current share
29%
December 31
polymarket · 0xe846dd72f8a654ef137a3e23a88226400b42cc0ca817ab4390a615860e08cafa
July 31
polymarket · 0xc11f41372087c4d934ae7adb869ff08272b2bcb3e242d4e628330353c130e480
June 30
polymarket · 0x6cb3ec9e0fb1c258898f648f8b33422f59ba3e8a71aee551449d7cb147bb8ead
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.