Iran leader end of 2026
Leader sits at 73% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 6%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Mojtaba Khamenei
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
6¢
Reza Pahlavi
Spread
67pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$69K
liquid
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
206 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Iran leader end of 2026
Iran leader end of 2026?: Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
0x0df7e8…c18c
Iran leader end of 2026?: No Head of State
0x6397f0…46d6
Iran leader end of 2026?: Abbas Araghchi
0x504088…f71c
Iran leader end of 2026?: Mojtaba Khamenei
0x25fb28…adbb
Iran leader end of 2026?: Reza Pahlavi
0xe6eb21…851f
Analysis
This 66% probability indicates markets assess a significant likelihood that Iran's top leadership will change by year-end 2026. The assessment reflects the advanced age of current leaders, succession uncertainties, and potential geopolitical disruptions, though the timeframe remains relatively compressed. Upward pressure comes from health concerns and political instability; downward pressure from the historical resilience of Iran's power structure. The May 31 contract trading at 9 cents suggests markets weight near-term transition as unlikely, with most probability concentrated in later months. Key near-term developments—Iranian elections, health updates on senior officials, and regional escalation scenarios—will shape whether this probability tightens or widens substantially. The December 31 resolution date means almost no time for verification after events occur.
- ›Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei's age (86 as of 2026) and historical succession mechanisms in Iran's governance structure
- ›Scheduled elections and political transitions in 2026 that could alter effective leadership without formal regime change
- ›Regional military escalation scenarios (Israel-Iran tensions, U.S. policy shifts) that could disrupt leadership continuity
- ›Market contract segmentation across May 31, June 30, and year-end suggests low confidence in near-term transition but material probability by December
- ›The 45-point gap between the leading outcome (66%) and runner-up (10%) indicates significant disagreement on alternative scenarios for end-2026 Iranian leadership
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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