What is the current probability for "Manchester City wins by over 2.5 goals?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 4¢ (4% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 25, 2026. 14 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Manchester City wins by over 2.5 goals?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 62971.7% and 109.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Manchester City wins by over 2.5 goals?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Manchester City wins by over 2.5 goals?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Manchester City wins by over 2.5 goals?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing April 25, 2026.

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4¢

Bid/Ask 0/1¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $17,091·OI $10,686.76·Closes Apr 25, 2026·14d remaining

KXFACUPSPREAD-26APR25MCISOU-MCI2

7-day price137 snapshots · 8 regime

38¢4¢ current

Apr 221¢Apr 25

Resolution rules

If Manchester City wins by more than 2.5 goals in the Manchester City vs Southampton professional FA Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 62971.7%

IY (No) 109.3%

Adj IY 15743%

CRI 24

RV 4716%

VR 2.47

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	62971.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	109.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	15743%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	4716%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.47	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	3.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.75	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/25/2026, 7:45:34 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/25/2026, 6:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXFACUPSPREAD-26APR25MCISOU-MCI2 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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