MD-05 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader sits at 63% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Adrian Boafo
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
Harry Dunn
Spread
47pp
contested
24h volume
$28
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 23, 2026
29 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
MD-05 Democratic Primary Winner
MD-05 Democratic Primary Winner: Adrian Boafo
0x946841…ee7f
MD-05 Democratic Primary Winner: Harry Dunn
0x851531…a9f6
MD-05 Democratic Primary Winner: Wala Blegay
0x2b021d…3e29
MD-05 Democratic Primary Winner: Nicole Williams
0x2596e4…8c63
Analysis
The market currently assigns Adrian Boafo a 54% probability of winning the MD-05 Democratic primary, while runner-up Harry Dunn sits at 21% and other candidates trail substantially. The significant gap between the leader and challengers reflects market participants' assessment that Boafo holds a structural advantage, though the race remains competitive given that Dunn and theoretical consolidation among other candidates represent a material threat. Trading volume concentrates heavily on the Boafo contract, suggesting active re-evaluation as new information emerges. Primary outcomes typically hinge on organizational strength, donor support, endorsements, and turnout patterns in the district. The resolution of this contract depends on the Maryland primary election date and official results certification.
- ›Boafo maintains a 33-point margin over the second-place finisher in current pricing
- ›Harry Dunn contract trades at 21 cents, indicating meaningful probability for a single alternative candidate
- ›Combined probability of all non-Boafo candidates exceeds 46%, creating potential coalition scenarios
- ›Minimal recent 24-hour trading volume outside Boafo ($21 vs. $0 on alternatives) suggests limited price discovery on challengers
- ›Primary outcome determined by official election results and margin thresholds defining winner-take-all contract resolution
What moved the line
- May 22Adrian Boafo↑7pp56→63¢ · Polymarket
- May 24Adrian Boafo↓5pp64→59¢ · Polymarket
- May 23Wala Blegay↑5pp5→10¢ · Polymarket
- May 19Adrian Boafo↑4pp52→56¢ · Polymarket
- May 18Wala Blegay↓4pp14→10¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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