MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
This contract is priced at 38¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 37¢ bid, 38¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
3
Family volume
$4.6M
Best sibling
June 30, 2026 67¢
Ticker
0x3733a1b6…3868
Market snapshot
May 31, 2026 in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?. The displayed quote is 38¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $453K. In the MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ? family, this outcome ranks #3 of 3 by current quote across 3 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 11, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC.
Outcome
May 31, 2026
Family rank
#3 of 3
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
38¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Jul 1, 2026
24h volume
$453K
Family context
3 outcomes · MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?
Quote range
37¢-87¢
Family leader
December 31, 2026 87¢
Last updated
May 11, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 11m ago
Venue identifier: 0x3733a1b647e7364095736ab0966465d896a84cf3b6bc1695ca1f26c3239b3868. Family volume: $4.6M.
Price history
38¢ current
−12¢Orderbook snapshot
37 / 38¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy sells any of its Bitcoin by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from MSTR and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
Identifier
0x3733a1b6…3868
Event family
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ .
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$4.6M
Outcomes
3
Highest price
December 31, 2026 87¢
Current share
29%
May 31, 2026
polymarket · 0x3733a1b647e7364095736ab0966465d896a84cf3b6bc1695ca1f26c3239b3868
June 30, 2026
polymarket · 0x8e7a03cb1970e2ad6533b01892403516b6b3f5b5fa90ed7d104c28b27e40ba00
December 31, 2026
polymarket · 0x8213d395e079614d6c4d7f4cbb9be9337ab51648a21cc2a334ae8f1966d164b4
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.568
Observability
high
Event type
financial
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.