MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 55% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
55%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$13.3M
1 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
210 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?: May 31, 2026
0x3733a1…3868
Analysis
This contract asks whether MicroStrategy will sell any portion of its Bitcoin holdings by a specified date. Currently priced at 10%, the low probability suggests markets view a sale as unlikely in the near term. MicroStrategy has positioned itself as a long-term Bitcoin accumulator, with corporate strategy centered on building and holding Bitcoin reserves rather than trading them. The probability would likely increase if the company faces liquidity pressures, changes its capital allocation strategy, or experiences significant financial stress. A sale would more probably occur during market downturns when MicroStrategy might need cash, or if leadership priorities shift away from Bitcoin accumulation. The contract's resolution depends entirely on whether any sale occurs before the specified deadline—even a small token sale would trigger a positive resolution.
- ›MicroStrategy's stated strategy prioritizes accumulating Bitcoin as a treasury reserve, not trading it for short-term gains
- ›Market conditions and Bitcoin price movements could force liquidity needs if the company faces cash flow pressure or debt obligations
- ›Changes in company leadership, board composition, or strategic direction could alter Bitcoin holdings policy
- ›The specific deadline matters significantly—a longer timeframe increases the probability of any sale event occurring
- ›Historical data on MicroStrategy's actual trading behavior versus stated long-term holding intentions
What moved the line
- Jun 2May 31, 2026↓28pp29→1¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1May 31, 2026↑15pp14→29¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in bitcoin
- Will Bitcoin hit $200,000?last 44% · 1d
- Will Bitcoin hit $100,000?$76,500 or abovelast 52% · 1d
- Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin?last 13% · 1d
- Will the Truflation Bitcoin Purchasing Power Index on Jun 1, 2026 be above 1065last 4% · 1d
- Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k firstlast 95% · 4d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (55% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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