MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing July 1, 2026. MicroStrategy's "Yes" position is priced at an extremely depressed 3¢ with an extraordinary 15,732% implied yield, suggesting the market assigns only a 3% probability the company sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026—a notably bullish stance on MSTR's hodling commitment.
Analysis
MicroStrategy's "Yes" position is priced at an extremely depressed 3¢ with an extraordinary 15,732% implied yield, suggesting the market assigns only a 3% probability the company sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026—a notably bullish stance on MSTR's hodling commitment. The 75-day timeframe and $82.6M open interest provide reasonable liquidity, though the zero spread and flat 7-day price action (hovering at 4¢) indicate limited recent conviction shifts despite the asymmetric payoff structure. The Cliff Risk Index of 32 warrants attention, as a sudden corporate pivot on Bitcoin strategy or forced liquidation scenario could trigger sharp repricing in this thin-probability tail event.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy sells any of its Bitcoin by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from MSTR and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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sf trade 0x8e7a03cb1970e2ad6533b01892403516b6b3f5b5fa90ed7d104c28b27e40ba00 yes 100