What is the current probability for "Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 5¢ (5% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 19, 2026. 239 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2903.6% and 8.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing December 19, 2026.

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5¢

Bid/Ask 5/5¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $569.54·OI $33,158.165·Closes Dec 19, 2026·239d remaining

0xda7193e2495d3a9a68c31665d23f516bda7ddc8fe18a81f7dc56798873610236

7-day price41 snapshots · 122 regime

5¢5¢ current

Apr 83¢Apr 18

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLS Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLS Cup per the rules of MLS (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLS season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Soccer; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2903.6%

IY (No) 8.0%

Adj IY 1452%

CRI 19

Overround -0.3%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2903.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	8.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1452%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/24/2026, 3:56:34 AM

Observability lowEvent type sports

Indicators computed 4/24/2026, 3:53:13 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xda7193e2495d3a9a68c31665d23f516bda7ddc8fe18a81f7dc56798873610236 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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