Will San Diego FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will San Diego FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Polymarket, closing December 19, 2026. San Diego FC is priced at an extremely depressed 5¢ with a staggering 2,811% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting severe undervaluation relative to a new MLS franchise's realistic championship odds—particularly given 247 days until expiry and $29.6k open interest with zero 24-hour volume, indicating illiquid, stale pricing.
Analysis
San Diego FC is priced at an extremely depressed 5¢ with a staggering 2,811% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting severe undervaluation relative to a new MLS franchise's realistic championship odds—particularly given 247 days until expiry and $29.6k open interest with zero 24-hour volume, indicating illiquid, stale pricing. The 1¢ spread and neutral regime score (0.341) suggest the market lacks conviction, while the 19 Cliff Risk Index flags potential resolution complications if the team faces elimination. This represents a classic low-liquidity mispricing opportunity where the Yes position offers exceptional risk-adjusted returns (1,406%) if San Diego FC's actual championship probability exceeds the 5% implied level.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLS Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLS Cup per the rules of MLS (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLS season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Soccer; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x1167ff40fdec61c475580f80421c7e32b29b6d4f1b5c91217057fe0aed77521a yes 100