Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing December 19, 2026. The Earthquakes are priced at a severe discount with just 3¢ implied probability, generating an extraordinary 4784% annualized yield for believers—though this reflects extreme long-shot odds rather than mispricing.
Analysis
The Earthquakes are priced at a severe discount with just 3¢ implied probability, generating an extraordinary 4784% annualized yield for believers—though this reflects extreme long-shot odds rather than mispricing. Liquidity is modest at $32.8k open interest with only $3.2k in 24-hour volume, creating meaningful execution risk for larger positions. The 247-day timeframe to resolution and neutral regime score suggest this is a legitimate deep-value bet on a rebuilding franchise, but the 32 Cliff Risk Index indicates significant binary event risk that could materially shift probabilities before December 2026.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLS Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLS Cup per the rules of MLS (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLS season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Soccer; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x3b08ae92e63b8d3c505a66f5b64979469cdf907894510f11b4cf5b2c7ac3dd27 yes 100