Negative GDP growth in 2026
Negative GDP growth in 2026 is priced at 8¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 6¢ bid, 11¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
8¢ current
−6¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product. Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Outcome
Negative GDP growth in 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$28K
Identifier
0xd8c1b0a7...edf1
Jun 8, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 9m ago
Implied probability
Bid
6¢
Ask
11¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$28K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 29, 2027
Family volume
$28K
Orderbook snapshot
6 / 11¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product. Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jan 29, 2027
Identifier
0xd8c1b0a7…edf1
Event family
Negative GDP growth in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$28K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Negative GDP growth in 2026 8¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
data_release
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.