South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 56% across 8 contracts. Kalshi at 91%, Polymarket at 20% — a 71pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
91%
4 contracts
Polymarket
20%
4 contracts
Cross-venue gap
71pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$18
8 contracts
Closes
Jan 31, 2027
241 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 91¢ · Polymarket 20¢ · 71pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (20¢, 4 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (91¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
4 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 27% of their title tokens — “Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2” vs “Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2
Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2.6%?: Above 2.6%
KXESGDPYOYF-26JUN25-T2.6
Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2.0%?: Above 2.0%
KXESGDPYOYF-26JUN25-T2.0
Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2.2%?: Above 2.2%
KXESGDPYOYF-26JUN25-T2.2
Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2.4%?: Above 2.4%
KXESGDPYOYF-26JUN25-T2.4
Cluster 2
Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026
Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026: 6.0-7.0%
0xe531b0…8c27
Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026: <0%
0x426e80…dbcd
Cluster 3
Negative GDP growth in 2026
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
0xd8c1b0…edf1
Cluster 4
2026 World GDP Growth: 3.3%
2026 World GDP Growth: 3.3%
0xb8e453…b627
What moved the line
- Jun 16.0-7.0%↑16pp13→29¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 23.3%↑13pp8→21¢ · Polymarket
- May 306.0-7.0%↓10pp23→13¢ · Polymarket
- May 283.3%↓7pp24→17¢ · Polymarket
- May 293.3%↓7pp17→10¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in recession
- Will Euro area inflation rate YoY flash for April 2026 be above 2.7%Above 2.7%last 86% · 1d
- Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?: 1.9%–2.2%last 48% · 4d
- Will Euro area GDP growth rate YoY flash for Q1 2026 be above 1.6%last 61% · 5d
- Will France inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026 be above 1.9%Above 1.9%last 97% · 5d
- Will Euro area GDP growth rate QoQ flash for Q1 2026 be above 0.7%last 89% · 5d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in recession.
In recession
Related reading
Trump-China Diplomacy: 75% Chance of Visit by May, Trade Deals Being Priced
Prediction markets price a 75% chance of Trump visiting China by May 2026, suggesting diplomatic resolution over trade war escalation despite ongoing market volatility around tariff fears.
Inflation 'Above 4%' Probability Crashes 21¢ as Oil Collapse Changes Inflation Outlook
The 'how high will inflation get in 2026: above 4%' contract collapsed -21¢ to 30¢ in a single session, making it one of the largest single-day moves in the recession/inflation cluster. The move appears directly connected to today's 7% oil price crash, which significantly reduces near-term inflation pressure.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.